Book page price is difficult to get better

Source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Comparing the price trend of the national waste book paper in 2018-2019, we found that as of now, the price trend in 2019 is basically the same as that in the same period of 2018. In particular, this week, some paper mills have cut their purchase prices by 30-150/ton, which has a significant impact on the overall market mentality. Although it is still in the first quarter of March, the price of waste paper in 2019 may continue to run in 2018, and the annual price may not be good. The reasons are as follows:

First, the production capacity is reduced

The vacating work of Zhejiang Fuyang Market Paper Factory has been the focus of the paper market in the past two years. Especially since 2018, the retire work has made substantial progress. In March 2018, the government shut down 11 paper-making enterprises under the Yongzheng Holding Group in advance, and the production capacity was reduced by 1.5 million tons. At the end of June, the second batch shut down two paper companies; in November, the local government launched the third batch of Retired from work, involving 35 paper-making enterprises, has been fully retired and shut down in place. From the above figure, it is found that the corresponding months have also seen a significant drop in prices, which shows that Fuyang market is an important position in the entire industry.

Since the launch of the full-scale retreat transformation operation, up to now, Zhejiang Fuyang District has shut down 66 paper-making enterprises in total, and the total production capacity has been eliminated by about 4.9 million tons. The rough calculation shows that the demand for waste paper is reduced by about 5.8 million tons. It has been reduced by 62.8%.

Second, the demand is pessimistic

On February 26, Nine Dragons Paper released its interim results report as of December 31, 2018. The report showed that sales of white cardboard, corrugated paper and cultural paper produced in 2018 increased by 16.9%, 19.5% and 145.5% respectively compared with the same period in 2017, while sales of coated grey-whiteboard paper fell by 4.8%. This group of data also directly reflects the pessimistic market demand for high-grade whiteboard paper in 2018. It is expected that the demand for gray-whiteboard paper will still be difficult to change in 2019, and the demand for white paper will continue in 2019 due to continued pessimistic demand. Reduction, this will inevitably affect the market demand for waste paper.

Third, lack of driving

Throughout the third quarter of 2016, domestic waste paper prices have experienced several major ups and downs under the influence of the sharp decline in foreign waste imports. The influence of news and speculation has played a decisive role. In 2017, due to the price of yellow paper and the price of book paper, the demand for book paper is still there, and the price has also risen greatly, but in 2018, because of the substantial reason for the decrease in demand for book pages, despite the price of yellow paper in the first half of 2018 There has also been a “highlight moment” with a cumulative increase of 600/ton in a week, but in the face of weak demand, the price of waste paper in the country has only slightly increased by about 100/ton.

Therefore, in the face of a substantial reduction in demand, price inversion as the only reason for the rise in book paper prices, its role is also significantly weakened. Moreover, it is expected that the price increase of yellow paper will be significantly reduced this year compared with 2018, and the price of book pages will be even worse.

Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan

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