The four factors restore the paper price to rebound the truth, and the lack of momentum is difficult to sustain!

Since the end of November 2017, the original paper price increase letter has been like a "time bomb" and then came to the carton industry. Just as everyone is eager to calm down, the price increase letter of 200 yuan in January (from Central China) has been bombarded. . Long-term, oscillating price increases make the second-level factory of the second-level factory miserable. Faced with the rebound in the price of raw paper at the end of the year, the industry only wants to find out what supporting elements are there in the original paper? How long will this round of growth last? This article will be announced soon!

Several fuses that triggered a rebound in paper prices at the end of the year

1. North heating “coal to gas”, gas price increase and carton industry

Since 2017, policies to support winter clean heating in the northern region have been intensively introduced, and the process of “coal to gas” has accelerated. However, the plan cannot keep up with the changes. The scale of gas used for “coal to gas” is larger than expected, and the demand for gas source is seriously exceeding expectations. The gas shortage and gas price surge are logical.

In the past three months, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in North China has risen by 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton, and the price has doubled.

Including Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions have also begun to implement gas restrictions, and directly lead to the closure of some downstream plants to limit production.

The rise in natural gas prices has had a major impact on paper and cartons with high energy demand. On November 28th, paper prices in many paper mills in North China were raised by 200 yuan/ton. The reason for the price increase was the increase in LNG prices and insufficient gas supply, which led to a sharp increase in costs.

Similarly, some paperboard mills that have undergone “coal to gas” have also been hit hard. Recently, some carton factories in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong have received price increases. The reasons given by the paperboard factory are the comprehensive reasons such as the price increase of natural gas, the rise of raw paper, and the suspension of production.

2. Fuyang implements the rectification of the paper industry, and the short-term imbalance between supply and demand affects the price of paper.

For a long time, the paper industry is the traditional industry of Fuyang and the main pillar industry. Fuyang has a history of papermaking in 1900, providing an important supply of carton raw materials for China's corrugated packaging industry. In recent years, in order to implement the economic and environmental policy requirements, Fuyang began to implement the concept of “Green Water Qingshan is Jinshan Yinshan”, and constantly speed up the improvement of the paper industry, and clean up and eliminate backward production capacity that does not meet environmental protection requirements.

On the afternoon of November 27th, Zhejiang Chunjiang Street held a corporate dismantling mobilization meeting. Clear arrangements were made for the location of the demolition, the demolition schedule and the demolition of the business 28 papermaking enterprises including Hangzhou Chunsheng Paper Co., Ltd. and Fuyang Huagong Paper Co., Ltd. were included in the demolition plan.

Everyone found that on the one hand, the implementation of the demolition policy of Fuyang Papermaking Co., Ltd., on the one hand, the original price increase letter followed, on the day of November 30, eight paper mills in Zhejiang Province issued a price increase letter, the increase was 100-200. yuan / tonne.

3. The implementation of the import waste paper policy is imminent, contributing to market tensions

A large part of the current domestic papermaking materials come from waste paper, and a large proportion of waste paper comes from imported waste paper. Taking 2016 as an example, the annual consumption of waste paper pulp was 63.29 million tons, of which imported waste paper pulp was 23.08 million tons, accounting for 36.47%. In August 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection released a new version of the “Import Waste Management Catalogue”, which clearly stated that unsorted waste paper was adjusted from restricted imports to prohibited imports, and recycled paper and cardboard were included in the “banned list”.

According to the statistics of Paper Industry News, about 7.97 million tons of the approved waste paper licenses approved in 2017 will be cancelled in 2018, accounting for 28.36% of the total approved this year.

Industry insiders pointed out that the macro policy will be an important clue to the future “paper market”. While accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity in the paper packaging industry, China will also cause phase tension in finished paper, which will lead to price increases. .

4, the peak order is not prosperous, paper companies deliberately use the price increase to force orders

According to the usual practice, the stocking of the original paper stock of the paperboard factory will start from mid-late December and January, and a large intensive demand will be formed. However, in the case of unclear paper prices, cardboard factories generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude. In order to let customers release their demand, upstream paper companies intend to reduce inventory, maintain stability and even increase paper prices by extending the downtime and maintenance time.

The price is not strong enough, and the price is difficult to sustain.

The price of the original paper that broke out in early December 2017 will rise again. How long will it last? Taking all factors into consideration, on the whole, the paper price is not strong enough, and this round of price increases will soon end, and even a spiral decline.

1. The stock of raw paper is at a high level, and it is difficult to relieve the pressure by extending the downtime.

According to the statistics of the China Paper Association, the total production of boxboard and corrugated paper in 2016 totaled 46.34 million tons. The output in the first three quarters of 2017 increased slightly year-on-year. If the demand is reduced by 10%, the current stock of wrapping paper on the market is about 4 million tons.

In addition, according to statistics from relevant research institutions, the new capacity of the packaging raw paper industry in 2017 will be 5.17 million tons, while the planned production capacity in 2012 will be 9.15 million tons. If most of the planned production capacity is implemented in 2018, the production capacity will significantly exceed the industry equilibrium level.

2, the order overdraft is close to the off-season of production

The recent market price increase, as well as the habitual pre-stocking, the inventory level of the secondary plant has reached a fairly high level. After the Spring Festival, it is followed by a four-month production season.

3. The blocked parts of imported waste paper will be gradually closed by domestic waste paper.

Imported waste paper thresholds have increased and the total amount has decreased. However, at the same time, China's waste paper recycling system is also constantly improving, and the total amount continues to increase. Like the high price of continuous waste paper in 2017, it has greatly promoted the enthusiasm of scattered waste paper recycling, and has effectively supplemented the domestic waste paper supply. The new supply pattern and raw material supply balance are constantly forming.

4. The market share of the carton quickly seized by “alternative packaging” is irreversible

There is no substitute product in the world. When the cost is high, users will inevitably adopt a more "cheap" solution, as is carton packaging. There are indications that the long-term paper price has “fascinated” and caused great damage to the paper packaging industry chain. Recycling packaging such as “10,000 boxes”, “ZerOBox green recycling container”, “shared carton” and “box common” are constantly robbing and eroding the market share of corrugated boxes.

For example, due to the madness of paper prices rising in August and September, the e-commerce packaging, which is sensitive to cost, generally deprecates cartons. The “double eleven” and “double twelve”, which are expected by the paper packaging industry chain, have become a pit. Compared with the previous years, the amount of cartons decreased significantly. In the field of packaging such as electronic appliances, it is also common for end users to reduce paper packaging or discarded paper packaging.