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In November, the month of the first month of the month, due to the lack of prosperous double-season peaks, the prospects of foreign trade exports are not optimistic and other factors, cardboard paper, corrugated paper and white cardboard have news of price cuts. Among them, the packaging materials of the four bases of Dongguan, Quanzhou, Taicang and Tianjin collectively cut the price by 100-300 yuan/ton. It is widely believed that the market will usher in a new round of price cuts.
Up to now, the national cardboard and corrugated paper have fallen to freezing point, and the individual paper mills in Dongguan do not include the tax price of 3,000 yuan. At the end of the 8th year, the price of Chinese wrapping paper is increasingly showing a slap in the air.
However, what puzzles the paper mills is that the market is still not alive after the price drops and falls. The large amount of buying in the expectation has not appeared, and the paper giants who are confident and smug at the beginning of the year also A misty water. What happened behind this?
2018, bearers get the world
Looking back on 2017, the most beautiful thing is the paper maker, who is also eating paper and soup with paper traders, cardboard companies and carton factories with more goods. The end users are the ones who have been sheared wool, because the demand is shrinking and the raw materials are rising. The price cannot be transmitted.
However, less than a year, Feng Shui fell over, and the end users who enjoyed the low-cost competitive dividends of suppliers became more and more powerful. The carton factories that responded to the trend of price reduction succeeded in keeping orders, while the carton and cardboard factories that saw more paper prices Paper traders and paper mills suffered from Waterloo. I had to spit it out when I ate it last year, and I even had to catch up with it.
Among them, the paper industry is the biggest loser. Because of the misplaced market demand, the paper factory overestimated the impact of the US ban, and artificially raising the national waste price due to excessive greed, and insisting on raising the paper price, it eventually led to overall passiveness.
Compared with the paper mills with strong financial resources, paper traders who use a lot of high-interest hot money speculation are probably the most painful group of people. As the price of paper falls and falls, and the paper traders who do not say how much paper prices are added, the paper traders will be ruined. Even paper traders who try their best to go to stocks are facing the crisis of blood loss.
Because of the difference in the pre-judgment of paper price trends, there has been a clear distinction between carton factories. Some carton factories that insist on not cutting the price of paper prices have lost a lot of customers. On the contrary, the carton factory that accepts the price reduction of customers will retain the cost and hope of future reversal.
The price of the base paper has fallen
For this year's paper price, Xiao Bian has always held a bearish view, and has repeatedly warned the packaging and printing companies. It turns out that these judgments are basically correct. The reason for this judgment is mainly based on the following points:
First, the imbalance between supply and demand is the root cause of the decline in paper prices. Starting from 2016, the peak price of paper in 2017 is not crazy, but caused by artificial speculation. In fact, the demand for packaging paper is reduced by one to 20% in 2017, and the 20- to 30% reduction in packaging paper demand in 2018 is objective and true. Therefore, it is estimated that there are still about 20 million tons of packaging paper social stocks on the market that have not been digested.
Second, there are variables in foreign exchange restrictions and environmental protection shutdowns. The skyrocketing price of paper in August 2017 was largely due to restrictions imposed by China’s foreign waste. The market has produced expectations of a shortage of raw materials, which has led to skyrocketing raw materials such as waste, which in turn has pushed up paper prices. In addition, the environmentally-friendly production capacity that has been speculating all the way has also been the driving force behind the rise in paper prices. But now, the situation seems to be reversed. On the one hand, the environmental protection has become looser, and no paper mill has been found to be forced to shut down due to environmental protection. On the other hand, a large amount of waste has flooded into the country, quickly hitting the national waste market and triggering price cuts.
Third, the demand for packaging paper is accelerating shrinking. Although the packaging paper giant has been shut down since the end of 2017, it has become normalized this year. However, the shrinking of consumption far exceeds the expectations of paper mills. The situation of oversupply of raw paper is difficult to change, and paper prices cannot form an upward trend.
Fourth, lack of market confidence. Due to lack of confidence in future orders, the downstream packaging and printing companies' enthusiasm for getting goods suddenly dropped, leading to excessive pressure on paper stocks. To ease the pressure on stocks, paper companies were forced to cut prices to attract orders. If 2017 is the world that sees more people, then in 2018 it is the bearer Bao Jiangshan. In particular, the previous rounds of paper price fluctuations have been falling, and the paper mills have gradually lost control of the paper price. The downstream manufacturers no longer follow the big paper industry's baton action, and the paper price is finally easy to fall.
Fifth, macroeconomic policies are not good for consumption. Wrapping paper is an industry that relies heavily on consumption and exports. There is no need to say more about exports, but the prospects for consumption are very bad. In particular, in recent years, the state has increased its investment in infrastructure in order to maintain growth. This policy is undoubtedly unfavorable for stimulating domestic demand. The funds used for consumption have been diverted into infrastructure, making consumption worse, and the demand for packaging paper will only accelerate.
Future paper price trend analysis
At present, the stock market and RMB assets are facing a sharp decline, and the debt ratio of the whole society has suddenly risen, causing the liquidity of enterprises and individuals to disappear instantly. The economic expectations reversed, and residents began to tighten their pockets, cut back on food, and entered the debt-repayment model. Now that the economy is accelerating, the downward trend in packaging paper demand cannot be reversed in a short period of time. Therefore, there is no suspense in the price of wrapping paper continuing to fall during the year.
Then, under what circumstances will the price of paper re-establish the upward trend? Or under what circumstances can we bargain?
1. The paper mill continues to shut down until it reaches a new balance between supply and demand. From the current situation, the paper mill is on the right path, but there is still a long way to go before the new supply and demand balance.
2. RMB fleas. In fact, the amount of money that China has over-issued in the past decade has been staggering, and the true value of the dollar may not match the current exchange rate of 1:7. Coupled with the sluggish domestic demand, the government urgently needs to expand exports to ease the downward pressure on the economy. Therefore, if the RMB exchange rate fleas and raw material prices rise, the paper price is expected to resume its upward trend.
3. The national macro policy turns to inflation. At the moment, companies are facing multiple dilemmas. The increase in factory rents and the change in social security fees have brought tremendous pressure on enterprises, and it is urgent to pass the price to pass the costs. The high housing prices not only bundled hundreds of millions of house slaves, but also stifled the manufacturing space. In the case of not being able to puncture the bubble in the property market, it is not excluded that the state will adopt inflationary means to increase the price of industrial products, and reverse the current state of arrogance in which factories are not as good as real estate speculators. In short, it is to freeze the property market, greatly increase the price of consumer goods, and double the wages of employees. Although it is only a digital game on the surface, it can re-energize the enthusiasm of private manufacturing, reduce the pressure on mortgage loans, and ultimately help the Chinese economy. Bottom rebound.
In short, from the current situation, in the paper mills and paper traders urgently need to ship to cash in the mouth, the packaging paper market has ushered in a long off-season. Domestic demand continues to shrink, and export prospects are unclear, and it is unlikely to provoke a desire for large-scale downstream purchases. Then let the price of paper fall again!
Responsible editor: Ge
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