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Hong Kong stock excavator
Zhitong Finance APP learned that on February 27th, Nine Dragons Paper (02689) held its 2019 fiscal year interim results conference in Hong Kong. Chairman Zhang Yin told Zhitong Finance APP that the first half of the year was affected by Sino-US trade and environmental protection policies. Industry demand and prices are under pressure, but the Group's sales have reached a record high of 7.5 million tons in the context of integrating its own advantages. During the period, the two US pulp mills acquired a total capacity of 380,000 tons, and the other two pulp mills were acquired to reduce raw material costs.
Ms. Zhang Yin also said that there will be room for 200 yuan in the future.
In 2019, the group plans to complete the construction of four paper machines in China. It is expected that the total production capacity of the group will reach 19 million tons after the completion of production at the end of 2021. Regarding the future situation, Ms. Zhang Yin said that the tightening of domestic policies is actually beneficial to large companies, and the Sino-US negotiations are cautiously optimistic and positive.
Zhitong Finance APP learned that in the first half of FY19, the Group's total sales increased by 18.2% to 30.3 billion yuan (the same below), gross profit decreased by 25.1% to 4.7 billion yuan, and gross profit margin decreased from 24.5% to 15.5. %, the profit attributable to shareholders decreased sharply by 48% to 2.26 billion yuan, and the interim dividend was 0.1 yuan per share, and the dividend payout ratio was about 20%.
The following is a Q&A record of the performance of the Zhitong Finance APP:
Q: The company also has business in the United States. What is the specific impact of the trade war on you? How to assess the future situation, especially the impact of waste paper import costs.
A: Generally speaking, we are cautiously optimistic about the trade war. The result of the trade war will not be worse. It is better to see where the specific measures are going. The country has given a quantity to import waste paper. This year is basically a stable state. In order to cope with such a situation, for example, last year we developed some recycled pulp, wood pulp, etc., and added a lot of supplementary materials in China. cut costs.
Q: How do you view the cost situation this year and the price changes of the products? Will there be any improvement in gross profit margin?
A: We believe that this year will not be worse than last year. From the year of sales and inventory decline, it is now a peak season, and we can achieve a balance between production and sales every day. Therefore, we are optimistic about 2019.
However, we are not good at assessing the specific gross profit margin, because for example, Sino-US trade war tariffs have dropped from 25% to 15%. This is unpredictable, but the impact on gross profit is huge. So it is difficult to assess before the specific policy is put to the end, but we also said that this year is optimistic, that is to say, it will not be worse than 2018.
Q: Regarding the impact of the trade war, the specific loss of cost? Can the RMB exchange loss of 200 million explain how to calculate it?
A: Actually, the impact of the trade war on us is very simple, that is, 25% of the tariff.
Regarding exchange losses, 52% of our borrowings are foreign currencies, because foreign currency interest rates are relatively low, and our import business also uses some foreign currency. Our basic principle is to control the exchange loss less than the financial expenses. We just mentioned that our exchange loss is 200 million yuan, of which 70 million is related to import operations. The exchange loss of the remaining loans is 140 million, but our financial expenses are saved more than 250 million, so we can completely cover exchange losses. Financial cost savings are cash savings. Exchange losses are not 100% cash losses. How to calculate them is calculated by comparing the central parity of foreign currencies such as Hong Kong dollars, US dollars and Euros published by RMB every day. It is a basic accounting standard.
Q: Regarding the inheritance of wealth, your son has also entered the management. What is the benefit of the family trust through the family trust?
A: They have come to power this year, and now they are gradually starting to work on their own, with their own professions and work to be done. Because they have a good foundation in all aspects of education, so there are good arrangements for inheritance, of course, they need time to experience. In Hong Kong, it is a family trust, which is better for business. This is normal.
Q: The management mentioned the opportunity to look at the South Asian market. Is it looking at the recycled pulp mill or the pulp mill? When will the layout be seen and what is the scale?
A: Regarding the South Asian market, we believe that in the next year, you will see that there is one more market for the Dragon, and of course this market is a potential market. As a listed company, in addition to dividends, more important is development. Dividends need development as a support. For the paper industry, scale effect is very important because its gross profit is not high, and Xiaolong’s gross profit margin is more stable, and development is particularly important. . However, this development is not like the fact that we have just entered such an industry and have grown exponentially. There will not be a situation in which eight bases will be laid out at once. Our liabilities will only maintain a steady decline and will not grow. Of course, this is also true about the Asian layout. The specific situation is expected to be announced next time.
Q: Regarding the dividend issue, the management mentioned that the dividend payout ratio was 10% last year, 20% this year, and will increase to 30%-40% in the future. Would you like to ask when is the implementation time? In 2019, it is said that the year is Gradually reached?
A: The dividend policy This is the common idea of ​​our board of directors. When the company makes a profit, it must pay dividends, but the specific dividend payout ratio depends on the profitability. But we think that for Xiaolong, 30%-40% is not a problem. We believe that there is a result to share with everyone. It is not for everyone to earn a share price difference, but to pay dividends. This is our general direction.
Q: This sales and marketing costs in the second half of last year, as well as the increase in administrative expenses, is this a one-off event? Or is it related to the acquisition of US pulp mills?
A: Our sales expenses and management expenses have increased significantly last year. For example, the administrative expenses have increased by nearly 260 million yuan. There are 60 million acquisitions of one-off expenses of the four major US factories, as well as changes in accounting standards. The cost of research and development into the cost is now raised separately, this part is about 160 million, and the environmental tax is about 20 million. The sales cost has increased by about 380 million, mainly from the United States. In the United States, it is mainly specialty paper, but their demand concentration is low, and the transportation radius is large. Because we need to build warehouses, distribution centers, etc., most of the freight here is freight. The small part is the storage fee, but the gross profit margin and selling price of specialty paper will be relatively high.
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