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In the past two years, from the fourth quarter to the beginning of the following year, paper prices have always come out of a wave of small bull markets. This year, with the "peak season" coming again, the price of paper does not seem to rise.
Paper prices are particularly cold this winter
According to the data, last week, the overall price of waste paper was lowered by 50-200 yuan/ton. As of last Saturday, the average price of waste yellow paperboard market was 2,244.29 yuan / ton, down 3.08% compared with the beginning of the week. The average ex-factory price of corrugated paper was 3,743.33 yuan / ton, down 1.32% compared with the beginning of the week.
Insiders pointed out that the recent waste paper market continued to be sluggish. Although it rebounded at the beginning of October, the rebound was obviously not strong and has now dropped back to a low level. The downturn in waste paper has also dragged down the price trend of corrugated paper. At this time of the previous year, the paper price has begun to take off. Correspondingly, the paper stock is also the "sweet" of many stockholders in the winter stocks.
It is understood that the relevant policy changes are the main reason behind the lack of prosperity in the peak season of paper prices this year. However, in the past two years, under the policy of “Prohibition of the implementation of the reform of the import management system for the import of solid waste into foreign solid waste†and the “Regulations on the Environmental Protection of Imported Waste Paperâ€, the supply of waste paper as a raw material for the paper industry in China is limited. All the way up.
But this year the situation is very different. According to the newly published Catalogue of Imported Waste Management, among the 32 kinds of solid wastes that were listed as banned from import on December 31, 2019, waste paper is not included.
Analysts believe that this also means that by 2021 China will still allow the import of waste paper. Affected by this, the national waste price has been falling all the way, which directly led to the pressure on the price of raw paper.
It used to be the "fragrance" of the stockholders' stocks, but now it has been left out. In the first two trading weeks of October, the A-share papermaking sector fell by 12.11% and 4.08%, respectively, and clearly underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index for the same period.
Enterprises need futures tools to hedge
Paper mills are uncomfortable with the volatility of waste paper prices. According to analysts, since 2000, almost all of China's new cardboard papers have been derived from recycled fiber. However, due to the sorting and recycling of domestic waste paper, China's papermaking enterprises have relied on imported recycled paper to maintain production. The fluctuation of waste paper prices is closely related to the survival of enterprises. In this year's downturn, small and medium-sized paper mills are eager to go to stock shipments, and large paper mills have difficulty in inventorying. Enterprises are in urgent need of relevant hedging tools.
“Wood pulp is one of the world's major bulk trade commodities that is not traded in mature futures markets. Among China's high share of global bulk commodity imports, iron ore, soybeans, rubber and wood pulp, only wood pulp currently has no futures market. China, Western Europe and the United States are the three major pulp markets," said Gao Linlin, an analyst at Guotai Junan Futures.
It is understood that pulp is the raw material of papermaking. According to the process, pulping can be divided into chemical pulping, chemical mechanical pulping and mechanical pulping. The pulping raw materials usually include wood, bamboo and non-wood (including rice straw, Reed, fern residue and waste paper. The downstream of global pulp includes: global household paper, global uncoated cultural paper, global coated cultural paper, global newsprint, global box corrugated and so on.
In addition, China's annual consumption of various types of paper is 110 million tons, and the average per capita is 77-78 kilograms, which is higher than the world average of 57 kilograms.
It is understood that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has recently approved the Shanghai Futures Exchange to carry out pulp futures trading. The contract is officially listed on November 26, 2018. According to industry insiders, the price of waste paper fluctuates drastically, and the demand for safe-haven enterprises has soared. The launch of pulp futures coincides with the time, which helps to improve the industry's ecology and increase the resistance of paper-making enterprises to risks.
Responsible editor: Ge
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