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Source: Green Online
Looking back at the development of the new energy market in 2018, the market has changed so much that the industry is staggering. There is a shift in project construction management, there are heavy-duty policies, there are violent fluctuations in the capital market, and there are rare high-level intensive calls.
The new energy industry is clearly still looking for a new balance in the turmoil. The changes in the domestic situation in 2018 also directly affected the operation of the new energy market, which has a certain impact on the original regulatory logic and market operation rules. So, how will the new energy industry go in 2019?
photoelectric
To describe the new energy market in 2018, “photovoltaic†must be the most important keyword. The changes in photovoltaic dynamic balance can be seen from three aspects.
First of all, in terms of policy orientation, GSP subsidies have become a past tense. This is a change in rules that leads to a new balance;
Secondly, the photovoltaic industry after the “adult ceremony†allows the capital market to have different views on its growth cycle and profit prospects, and also to find a new balance;
In addition, the overall energy chain of the new energy industry is still in the middle of the accumulation, and the valuation of the re-starting is also re-considered at the bottom of the industry while the growth rate of the industry is changing.
In fact, changes in favorable policies have also proved that even the regulatory authorities are looking for a balance. As for the photovoltaic subsidies since 2018, there has been a huge change.
In 2018, the Energy Bureau suddenly introduced the "531" New Deal, which not only lowered the intensity of subsidies again, but also strictly controlled the new scale, which led to the photovoltaic industry falling into a "cold winter" overnight. At about the same time, the domestic market as a whole shrank and the capacity utilization rate was low. The photovoltaic enterprises “slow the tide of production†and “stop productionâ€. But half a year later, the situation of the photovoltaic industry was "not expected to be so bad."
It was not until November 2 that PV companies were relieved. Li Chuangjun, deputy director of the New Energy Department, said that before 2022, there would be subsidies for photovoltaics, and subsidies would not fall across the board. At the same time, with the further decline of system cost, the PV parity project will explode in 2019. Considering the increase of parity projects, it is expected that the new installed capacity in 2019 is expected to reach 50GW, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the industry boom will be repaired.
According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 PV companies, such as GCL, Trina Solar, Dongfang Risheng and Sunshine Power, have deployed energy storage businesses, and many of them have added code after the introduction of “5·31 New Dealâ€. March.
However, the industry still needs to be vigilant: bid farewell to subsidies and market-oriented is the general trend. The future of photovoltaics depends on whether it can be priced online (competing with thermal power), and the ability to reduce costs becomes the core competence of this industry.
From the general trend, in order to create better project yields in the era of parity, more and more enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry are actively achieving their goals through “practicing†rather than simply “loweringâ€. Therefore, in the next two or three years, the PV market will show the status of non-subsidized projects and subsidy projects.
wind power
In addition, there is also a situation in the wind power market to find a new balance. Since 2018, the wind power boom has obviously rebounded, but the bidding online has not yet made substantial progress. It has become the "Sword of Damocles". How to deal with the new environment has become a problem that all enterprises must solve.
On the one hand, the overall sector tends to be refined, and deep integration is one after another. In the context of a comprehensive bidding policy, simply pursuing a decline in construction costs will put developers at a disadvantage in the future competition for competitive bidding, because “in the future competition, the efficiency of power generation will be crucial.â€
Obviously, "bidding" is the means, and subsidies are the purpose. In the next few years, it will be a critical period for the wind power industry. It is necessary to take a new round of changes as an opportunity to innovate and develop new business models and win new development space in the energy and power market in the era of affordable Internet access. The key is how to guide enterprises to get rid of subsidy dependence and scientifically and reasonably reduce electricity prices.
It is expected that in the second half of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€, under the conservative expectations, the potential for land price decline will reach at least 10%. If the policy implementation is implemented, the potential for decline can reach about 20%.
On the other hand, distributed wind power is not the miniaturization and miniaturization of centralized wind power, but means a huge change in the development model, which also indicates that a more segmented product era is coming.
Referring to the law of scale development of distributed photovoltaics and distributed natural gas, the agency expects that by 2020, China's decentralized wind power installed capacity will reach 20GW, and the annual growth rate of new distributed wind power installed capacity will be more than 100%. With the upstream raw material prices at a high level of volatility and even the possibility of a downturn, domestic wind power component manufacturers are currently in the stage of steady recovery of profit margins and shipments, and the head enterprises have certain expansion potential.
Standing on the node of the post-subsidy era, looking back at the frame and passing through, it is not difficult to see the industrial process from small to large to strong, the new energy has lost the initial "blitz plot", more calm and rational.
From the early pursuit of development to focusing on improving quality and efficiency and controlling large-scale arms, from centralized large-scale development to centralized and decentralized development, the new energy industry is constantly updating its iteration. The opening of the new application pattern will undoubtedly inject new vitality into new energy companies.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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