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In recent days, the pulp and paper market has not been booming. In particular, the price of commercial wood pulp has fallen sharply. The market for various types of paper (including paper, paperboard and processed paper) has also been very weak, and prices have generally declined. The production and business operators of the paper industry must be deeply concerned about the reasons for this situation and the future trend of the market.
Under the increasingly globalized market mechanism, the general competitive industry’s market is prosperous and weak, mainly determined by the increase or decrease in market demand for its products and the balance of surplus between it and actual production. Supply exceeds demand. Weakness, prices tend to fall, and if demand exceeds supply, the market will flourish and prices will increase. Pulp and paper users and operators will overcome the speculative psychology and behavior of stocks when the market price rises, over-purchase reserves, and market prices tend to fall. , it may further increase the range of price increase and decrease under such imbalance between supply and marketing.
Since paper is an indispensable product in terms of cultural propaganda, daily life, and product packaging, its social demand is steadily growing with the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). There is a very close relationship between the two. Taking China as an example, from 1990 to 1999, due to the rapid development of the national economy, the average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 8%, making domestic paper consumption increase annually. The rate has also reached 10.8%. As domestic fiber raw material supply and the original production technology foundation are relatively low, both the output and quality can hardly meet the needs of the domestic market, so the import volume of paper and paperboard, processed paper, and commercial pulp and waste paper is greatly increased. In 1999, such products were The total amount of raw materials imported reached 12.5 million tons. The domestic paper market and the international paper market have basically integrated into one. To analyze the dynamics of the domestic paper market, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the overall situation of international pulp and paper demand and production supply capacity in order to gain a deeper understanding.
Looking at the total demand for paper internationally, due to the financial crisis in Asia in 1997, the recent increase in the GDP of the major pulp and paper producing and consuming countries in the United States, Japan, Asia, and Europe has decreased, and the increase in demand for paper has also been significantly reduced. From the world's existing pulp production capacity, it is a relative surplus. This situation of oversupply is the basic reason for the current downturn in the paper market. In order to facilitate the specific analysis, the author summarized and summarized the following table according to the relevant statistical data of PPI magazine for several years in the 1990s:
1. The utilization rate of production capacity is calculated based on the annual actual output divided by the annual production capacity.
2. The amount of raw pulp consumed per ton of paper is calculated by dividing the production volume of the original pulp by the production of paper.
3. The production and sales rate of pulp paper is calculated by dividing the total output of the year by the total performance consumption.
From the above table, it can be seen that in the 1990s, the growth rate of the pulp and paper production capacity of the world papermaking industry was higher than the increase in consumer demand, and the utilization rate of production capacity was generally lower than 90%, especially in terms of pulping, due to waste paper The continuous increase in the utilization rate, the continuous increase of filler coatings and chemical additives, the amount of ton paper pulp consumed in 1998 was as low as 82.3 kg, so the overall stock of society increased year by year. This shows that the current production capacity of the paper industry and the actual output of each year are greater than the market demand, it seems that if the world's paper industry does not attach importance to restricting new capacity according to market demand, and take appropriate measures to reduce production, the situation of the downturn in the pulp market is more difficult to reverse . However, at present, the price of commercial wood pulp is close to the average production cost, and some high-cost pulping companies will be forced to stop producing and cutting production, so there is less room for further decline in pulp prices.
In terms of paper and paperboard, as the overall economic growth in the world slows down, demand is relatively weakened, and with lower pulp prices, price increases are also more difficult. Although the international production capacity is greater than supply, but China's current pulp and paper production capacity is still lower than the market needs, and steadily increase production capacity is still necessary. However, considering that the world's overall pulp and paper production capacity is in excess and the market competition is fierce, new production capacity must be carefully studied on the scale of production and technology level, so that it has a strong international market competitiveness, and it is advisable to accelerate the technology of the existing backbone enterprises first. Reconstruction and appropriate expansion to improve quality, efficiency and reduce costs, and enhance market competitiveness, (the current national policy to support the development of domestic paper industry is conducive to this work). At the same time, we must resolutely eliminate backwardness and backwardness in productivity so as to adapt to the current situation. In terms of pulping, as China currently lacks the concentration of fiber raw materials for large chemical pulp mills, and lacks the advantages of self-solving large-scale modern pulping technology and equipment, at present, except for a few paper mills with better conditions, it may consider that the scale effect of new construction is not significant. Outside the chemical pulp production line, the preparation for the construction of a new large-scale chemical pulp mill must be particularly prudent, and it should be avoided as much as possible to avoid the pros and cons of a strong desire to reduce the import of pulp. In order to avoid imported pulp being completely manipulated by foreign countries, it may be considered that with the support of the government and financial institutions, the major pulp companies will join together to properly import pulp funds to form larger pulp marketing groups and purchase reserves when the international pulp price is low. When the international pulp price rises excessively, it invests in the domestic market to keep it flat. This may be the current preferred response strategy. (Advisor Yu Yu of China Paper Association)
Under the increasingly globalized market mechanism, the general competitive industry’s market is prosperous and weak, mainly determined by the increase or decrease in market demand for its products and the balance of surplus between it and actual production. Supply exceeds demand. Weakness, prices tend to fall, and if demand exceeds supply, the market will flourish and prices will increase. Pulp and paper users and operators will overcome the speculative psychology and behavior of stocks when the market price rises, over-purchase reserves, and market prices tend to fall. , it may further increase the range of price increase and decrease under such imbalance between supply and marketing.
Since paper is an indispensable product in terms of cultural propaganda, daily life, and product packaging, its social demand is steadily growing with the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). There is a very close relationship between the two. Taking China as an example, from 1990 to 1999, due to the rapid development of the national economy, the average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 8%, making domestic paper consumption increase annually. The rate has also reached 10.8%. As domestic fiber raw material supply and the original production technology foundation are relatively low, both the output and quality can hardly meet the needs of the domestic market, so the import volume of paper and paperboard, processed paper, and commercial pulp and waste paper is greatly increased. In 1999, such products were The total amount of raw materials imported reached 12.5 million tons. The domestic paper market and the international paper market have basically integrated into one. To analyze the dynamics of the domestic paper market, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the overall situation of international pulp and paper demand and production supply capacity in order to gain a deeper understanding.
Looking at the total demand for paper internationally, due to the financial crisis in Asia in 1997, the recent increase in the GDP of the major pulp and paper producing and consuming countries in the United States, Japan, Asia, and Europe has decreased, and the increase in demand for paper has also been significantly reduced. From the world's existing pulp production capacity, it is a relative surplus. This situation of oversupply is the basic reason for the current downturn in the paper market. In order to facilitate the specific analysis, the author summarized and summarized the following table according to the relevant statistical data of PPI magazine for several years in the 1990s:
Annual Pulp Production Capacity Utilization% Paper Production Capacity Utilization% Ton Paper Consumption Native Slurry (kg) Primary Pulp Production/Sales Ratio (%) Paper Production/Sales Ratio (%) 1990 87.389.7674100.2100.7199485.990.8639101.8100.2199882.386.0583100.2100. 8
Explanation: 1. The utilization rate of production capacity is calculated based on the annual actual output divided by the annual production capacity.
2. The amount of raw pulp consumed per ton of paper is calculated by dividing the production volume of the original pulp by the production of paper.
3. The production and sales rate of pulp paper is calculated by dividing the total output of the year by the total performance consumption.
From the above table, it can be seen that in the 1990s, the growth rate of the pulp and paper production capacity of the world papermaking industry was higher than the increase in consumer demand, and the utilization rate of production capacity was generally lower than 90%, especially in terms of pulping, due to waste paper The continuous increase in the utilization rate, the continuous increase of filler coatings and chemical additives, the amount of ton paper pulp consumed in 1998 was as low as 82.3 kg, so the overall stock of society increased year by year. This shows that the current production capacity of the paper industry and the actual output of each year are greater than the market demand, it seems that if the world's paper industry does not attach importance to restricting new capacity according to market demand, and take appropriate measures to reduce production, the situation of the downturn in the pulp market is more difficult to reverse . However, at present, the price of commercial wood pulp is close to the average production cost, and some high-cost pulping companies will be forced to stop producing and cutting production, so there is less room for further decline in pulp prices.
In terms of paper and paperboard, as the overall economic growth in the world slows down, demand is relatively weakened, and with lower pulp prices, price increases are also more difficult. Although the international production capacity is greater than supply, but China's current pulp and paper production capacity is still lower than the market needs, and steadily increase production capacity is still necessary. However, considering that the world's overall pulp and paper production capacity is in excess and the market competition is fierce, new production capacity must be carefully studied on the scale of production and technology level, so that it has a strong international market competitiveness, and it is advisable to accelerate the technology of the existing backbone enterprises first. Reconstruction and appropriate expansion to improve quality, efficiency and reduce costs, and enhance market competitiveness, (the current national policy to support the development of domestic paper industry is conducive to this work). At the same time, we must resolutely eliminate backwardness and backwardness in productivity so as to adapt to the current situation. In terms of pulping, as China currently lacks the concentration of fiber raw materials for large chemical pulp mills, and lacks the advantages of self-solving large-scale modern pulping technology and equipment, at present, except for a few paper mills with better conditions, it may consider that the scale effect of new construction is not significant. Outside the chemical pulp production line, the preparation for the construction of a new large-scale chemical pulp mill must be particularly prudent, and it should be avoided as much as possible to avoid the pros and cons of a strong desire to reduce the import of pulp. In order to avoid imported pulp being completely manipulated by foreign countries, it may be considered that with the support of the government and financial institutions, the major pulp companies will join together to properly import pulp funds to form larger pulp marketing groups and purchase reserves when the international pulp price is low. When the international pulp price rises excessively, it invests in the domestic market to keep it flat. This may be the current preferred response strategy. (Advisor Yu Yu of China Paper Association)
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